Terrorism Telegram Newsline – July 11

  • Final results poll :

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** There are pro’s and cons of negotiating with terrorists. A 2008 study, “How Terrorist Groups End”, studied 648 terrorist groups since 1968. 43 % ended in a transition into a political process, 40 % ended as a result of policing, 10 % ended with victory for the terrorists, and 7 % ended as a result of a military success. For those of you who want to know more on the subject, this is a very good read. (ISBN 978-0-09957-586-3).

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  • – Shooting between the national guard and terrorists –
  • – Lionel Dumont allegedly had links with terror suspects arrested last week in France and Belgium – https://t.co/LFYgBbxMLG
  • – 2 mental health patients arrested for planning a terrorist attack – https://t.co/Y9e9FCJBXQ
  • – Algerian detained for deportation. Used over 20 identities and is fan of ideology – https://t.co/u8lB0L1iox
  • – Security screening of visitors of festival – https://t.co/SzU7FsYcK7
    ** Already 35 people got a negative advice. Ticket will be refunded. Among them possibly radicalized individuals.
  • – Marawi fight: 100 militants ‘holed up with hostages’ in centre of Philippine city – https://t.co/6CjsH25Dqy
  • claims having killed 2 YPG fighters and having wounded 8 others, west of Raqqa.
  • claims having carried out a suicide mission @ a YPG hq, killing at least 12 YPG fighters.
  • and Qatar sign a memorandum of understanding on terrorism financing.
  •   – Blast at Air Force facility an act of domestic terrorism? – https://t.co/WWTJJXf3c7
  • Islamic State leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi has been killed – Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says it has “confirmed information” – TE: Let’s wait for serious confirmation.
    ** Some background on the decapitation of a terrorist group: does it work? Origin of the claim/assumption on that comes from Bryan Price.
    ** It obviously is a widely practiced CT-measure. Examples: FARC leader Cano in Colombia, 2011. ETA’s Izaskun Lesaka in 2012.
    ** al-Qaeda’s bin Laden in 2011. RAF leaders in Germany, 1972. PKK’s Öcalan in 1999.
    ** Let’s have a look at the evidence now. FARC: leader gone in 2011, still active in 2017, but disarming now. ETA, leader gone in 2011, active after that. al-Qaeda leader gone in 2011, still active and growing again. RAF: extinct. PKK: then leader gone in 1999, still very active.
    ** Scientifically, the decapitation is considered a success, when the organization is inactive for 2 years after the decapitation.
    ** The younger and/or smaller a group is, the more chances you have of destabilizing a group after the decapitation.
    ** A study from 2009 had a look at 298 cases of decapitation of terrorist groups. Some key findings: 1) Religiously inspired groups survived in 96 pct of the cases. 2) Separatist groups survived in 89 pct of the cases. 3) Ideological groups (left and right wing) survived in 67 pct of the cases. 4) Overall, decapitation has been successful in 17 pct of the cases.
    ** Does that success rate mean, it shouldn’t be part of a CT-strategy? No. Not at all. In the long run, it might end the group at some point.
    ** But: the earlier the decapitation occurs, the more effective it will be.
    ** Why is it important to study those facts? Because it had got a legal and ethical impact, you have to watch out for human rights violations and it is of the utmost importance to study if decapitation is not counterproductive.
    ** In short, you could say that not a single terrorist group requires a same approach. There have been successes such as the Real IRA, Shining Path and so on, but they all required a different approach. The success of the decapitation highly depends on the organization and the way they operate.
    ** You could ask yourself why, for example, the death of Mullah Mohammed Omar was kept secret for 2 years.
    ** When it comes down to al-Baghdadi, 1 high-ranked and 2 less ranked commanders confirm his death, without (visual) proof.
    ** The SOHR also claims the 3 commanders claim has been in , for the past 3 months.
    ** Also note that nothing can be found on official IS channels up to now. US and Iraqi officials haven’t been able to verify the claims of his death either. So let’s wait for some serious proof and confirmation.
  •   – US soldier arrested after pledging loyalty to – https://t.co/oiwIdtH1Zy
  • – Over 100,000 houses checked in 2016 to fight terrorism – https://t.co/CMoEXhBXC5
  • New poll: counter-terrorism. Do you think talking to/negotiating with terrorists should be included in counter-terrorism measures? –
    09%Depends on group
    25%Depends on group + timing
  • – Lebanese Army Kills Mastermind of Ras Baalbek Blasts in Arsal Op. – https://t.co/d7OC6gDqQ2
  • – Rebels say they shot down Syria warplane in ceasefire zone
  • – Israeli forces open fire at Palestinian car in northeast Jerusalem – https://t.co/vmHQrxzRES
  • claims having killed 4 soldiers in clashes.
  • – Kurdish forces wrestle control of -held junction town in rural Raqqa – https://t.co/VVEghVoTSE
  • – Islamist ambush in the north: 10 soldiers have disappeared. – https://t.co/kaITNJB27E

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